12-DECEMBER 09-2021

Not sure what this is aboutGood morning.
Part of the surprising strength of the housing market over the course of the pandemic has been the reaction to the housing bubble of the mid-2000s.  With excess inventory, new home growth slowed to a crawl, and this underinvestment in homes is now catching up, leading to higher prices for homeowners and new prospective buyers alike.
A similar “underinvestment” trend may have occurred in the US oil market over the past few years.  In 2014, OPEC members increased production to squeeze out smaller players, such as US shale producers.  This bear market likewise has led to years of underinvestment relative to today’s demand.  That may be why rising calls for oil to top $100 per barrel again may be right, and why those high prices may persist longer than expected.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Biden White House in Panic-Mode Over the Economy
The view from Main Street matches a parallel survey of over 9,000 non-small business owners conducted by Momentive for CNBC, which shows only 21% of independents, and just 65% of Democrats, say Biden has been good for the economy.  In addition to the broader public opinion polling, the data from the… [Read Here]

Biden Targets Real Estate Investors with Bizarre New Program
The Biden administration is looking to expand reporting requirements on all-cash real estate deals to help crack down on bad actors’ use of the U.S. market to launder money made through illicit activity.  The Treasury Department was posting notice Monday seeking public comment for a… [Read Here]

December 09, 2020

Highly ContagiousGood morning.
In the new shot heard ‘round the world, 90-year-old UK citizen Margaret Keenan became the first Briton to receive the Pfizer vaccine or Covid-19.  While a full rollout will still take time – and needs to head across the pond to the United States, it’s a sign that a return to normal is in sight.
With a stock market near all-time highs, high but declining unemployment, and concerns over a second wave of lock-downs first, the news couldn’t come at a better time.  What’s even more remarkable about the achievement is the speed at which it occurred.  Covid-19 was only first identified just under one year ago this month.

Now here’s the rest of the news:


December 09, 2019

Are you ready for “The BIG Life Questions?”  Darren Hardy believes you are … and so do I.

And always remember this quote from Karen Salmansohn, “Breathe in the good shit. Breathe out the bullshit.”  Afterall, who’s truth is it?  😉

Come From Aways, Do You?

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08-AUGUST 06-2022

  Today! August 06, 2021 Good morning. Rising Delta-variant cases, inflation fears, supply chain issues – the market is dealing with a lot right now.  That’s caused the market to feel like it’s sagging and about to drop, even when stocks are still just under all-time highs. Looking at the big tech space, which is largely rallying once again, and which makes up the biggest part of the market, it’s clear that the recent fears are just part of the “wall of worry” that the stock market sees during a bull market.  That view is also supported by Goldman Sachs

08-AUGUST 05-2022

Good morning. Oil prices have continued lower, with a barrel of crude breaking under $90 in trading yesterday.  That will likely prove further good news at the gas pump.  But it will mean bad news for investors who flocked into energy plays as oil prices surged higher earlier this year. In the meantime, it’s harder to find a more beaten-down space than cryptocurrencies.  Yet the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock (BLK), is partnering with Coinbase (COIN) to make it easier for institutional investors to trade Bitcoin. It just goes to show – assets tend to be mean-reverting over time.  A

08-AUGUST 04-2022

Good morning. We’ve called it a recession since the first quarter data came out.  That was confirmed by a second quarterly drop just last week – even as the goalposts have been moved on the definition of a recession.  Ready for a third quarterly drop in a row?  The data suggests we may already be there. The data in question is the services PMI. It’s showing a large amount of declining output – in fact, the largest recorded since the global financial crisis in 2008.  That, combined with a slowdown in consumer spending and home prices, points to a third

08-AUGUST 03-2022

Good morning. Between inflation at 40-year highs and two quarters of negative GDP growth, investors in the US are dealing with some tough times.  But compared to the rest of the world, the US looks like one of the strongest places to invest now. Europe is likely in a recession, and its energy shortage due to Russian sanctions will only make it deeper.  In contrast, the US has the capacity to be energy independent.  The US is also food independent, at a time when grain shipments from Ukraine have finally started up again. Overall, investors can still be cautious.  But

08-AUGUST 02-2022

Good morning. The stock market’s strong rally of the past few days has allowed it to retrace nearly half of its losses since the start of the year.  That could mark the end of the recent drop – or it could be simply a bear market rally before the longer-term downtrend picks up. Some clues point to further downside.  While the Fed didn’t raise interest rates more than expected last week, they continued to warn on inflation, which still runs hot.  And a number of central bankers have warned that the Fed isn’t ready to pivot yet on its current

08-AUGUST 01-2022

Good morning. Last week saw a strong rally for the market, with the best-performing week for stocks since 2020.  That’s in spite of data indicating the economy continues to contract.  As we get into August, however, that rally should cool. On a technical basis, the market has now had a strong rally.  But it also fits the pattern of a bear market rally.  And until the Fed stops raising interest rates, we likely won’t see a sustained rally higher – aka, the so-called “pivot” that will signal a true change in the market’s long-term trajectory. All told, that points to

07-JULY 31-2022

Today’s Newfoundland… It may not be my first stop in St. John, but the Quidi Vidi Brewery will be in the top 5. July 31, 2021 “There is no royal, flower-strewn path to success. And if there is, I have not found it. For if I have accomplished anything in life, it is because I have been willing to work hard.” –CJ Walker What Worked, What Didn’t, What’s Next? One of the common denominators of successful people is their ability to persevere when things don’t go as planned.  Effective people don’t allow themselves to get bogged down in feelings that

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