08-AUGUST 16-2021

Business_09Good morning.
The stock market quickly bounced back from its Covid crash of March 2020, assisted in part by trillions in stimulus and help from central banks (which is still going on).  With that kind of help, how can an investor determine what’s really going on?  By looking at other data than stock prices or GDP, which includes government spending as part of its calculation.
One trend worth watching is in freight trends.  The Cass Freight Index (there’s an index for everything) shows that goods shipped by road and rail in North America finally hit a pre-pandemic level in July.  While a good metric for tracking the economic recovery, physical goods are becoming less useful in today’s interconnected digital age.  But it’s a sign that the economy has room to grow, and is largely recovered outside some supply chain issues and a labor market mismatch.

Precious Metals Prices
Price at week’s end (change over last week)

 

Gold … $1,780.68 (+0.9%)
Silver … $23.82 (-2.5%)
Platinum … $1,038.25 (+5.0%)
Palladium … $2,683.55 (+0.8%)

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Inflation Is Winning, and Here’s Why the Fed Seems Content To Let It Happen
A peek at the shocking state of the government’s balance sheet explains why the Fed has thrown in the towel on the fight against inflation… [Read Here]

More Money Doesn’t Mean More Wealth
Excessively high inflation seems like it’s here to stay.  Some voices have given up on condemning inflation, and instead have chosen to welcome its benefits, like bigger paychecks for workers!  Here’s why that’s utterly absurd… [Read Here]

Manager Who Called Gold’s All-Time High Sees Price Doubling in 3-5 Years
The Quadriga Igneo manager outlines the longer-term case for gold to double, at least.  There are a number of reasons he thinks gold might climb as high as $5,000… [Read Here]

August 16, 2020

“Listening is the foundation, not just of negotiation, but of everything worthwhile in life.”
—Alex B Carter

Here’s to a better YOU … and now … Today’s DarrenDaily Recap Sunday.  A collection of the weeks videos from Darren Hardy.  Enjoy!

Describing its beauty!!!  Taken in St. Anthony, Newfoundland, Canada.

Aerial view of Saint Anthony, Nfld

Aerial view of a small town on a rocky Atlantic Ocean Coast during a cloudy day.

August 16, 2019

Lotto ManiaI’m retweeting this as there’s a newfound interest in eating less red meat, addressing global warming, and alternative ways of living life healthier.  Good Morning.

We’re always cautious on any company going public.  IPOs are an opportunity for a company to raise capital before it has a trading history, and usually before it’s even profitable.  If a company has a great story, it may have a huge rally from its IPO, but reality will eventually set in.

Beyond Meat, one of the hot IPOs of the year, saw this recently.  Shares are down over 29% from their all-time high following an earning report where it quadrupled sales — but the company also announced it was issuing more shares.  Even a fast growing company won’t always grow fast enough to keep the market happy.  We suspect other recent IPOs will see similar drops as earnings season unwinds.

Motivational Quote of the Week

“It’s not always that we need to do more but rather we need to focus on less.” — Nathan W. Morris

IMG_0712
Come From Aways, Do You?

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08-AUGUST 06-2022

  Today! August 06, 2021 Good morning. Rising Delta-variant cases, inflation fears, supply chain issues – the market is dealing with a lot right now.  That’s caused the market to feel like it’s sagging and about to drop, even when stocks are still just under all-time highs. Looking at the big tech space, which is largely rallying once again, and which makes up the biggest part of the market, it’s clear that the recent fears are just part of the “wall of worry” that the stock market sees during a bull market.  That view is also supported by Goldman Sachs

08-AUGUST 05-2022

Good morning. Oil prices have continued lower, with a barrel of crude breaking under $90 in trading yesterday.  That will likely prove further good news at the gas pump.  But it will mean bad news for investors who flocked into energy plays as oil prices surged higher earlier this year. In the meantime, it’s harder to find a more beaten-down space than cryptocurrencies.  Yet the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock (BLK), is partnering with Coinbase (COIN) to make it easier for institutional investors to trade Bitcoin. It just goes to show – assets tend to be mean-reverting over time.  A

08-AUGUST 04-2022

Good morning. We’ve called it a recession since the first quarter data came out.  That was confirmed by a second quarterly drop just last week – even as the goalposts have been moved on the definition of a recession.  Ready for a third quarterly drop in a row?  The data suggests we may already be there. The data in question is the services PMI. It’s showing a large amount of declining output – in fact, the largest recorded since the global financial crisis in 2008.  That, combined with a slowdown in consumer spending and home prices, points to a third

08-AUGUST 03-2022

Good morning. Between inflation at 40-year highs and two quarters of negative GDP growth, investors in the US are dealing with some tough times.  But compared to the rest of the world, the US looks like one of the strongest places to invest now. Europe is likely in a recession, and its energy shortage due to Russian sanctions will only make it deeper.  In contrast, the US has the capacity to be energy independent.  The US is also food independent, at a time when grain shipments from Ukraine have finally started up again. Overall, investors can still be cautious.  But

08-AUGUST 02-2022

Good morning. The stock market’s strong rally of the past few days has allowed it to retrace nearly half of its losses since the start of the year.  That could mark the end of the recent drop – or it could be simply a bear market rally before the longer-term downtrend picks up. Some clues point to further downside.  While the Fed didn’t raise interest rates more than expected last week, they continued to warn on inflation, which still runs hot.  And a number of central bankers have warned that the Fed isn’t ready to pivot yet on its current

08-AUGUST 01-2022

Good morning. Last week saw a strong rally for the market, with the best-performing week for stocks since 2020.  That’s in spite of data indicating the economy continues to contract.  As we get into August, however, that rally should cool. On a technical basis, the market has now had a strong rally.  But it also fits the pattern of a bear market rally.  And until the Fed stops raising interest rates, we likely won’t see a sustained rally higher – aka, the so-called “pivot” that will signal a true change in the market’s long-term trajectory. All told, that points to

07-JULY 31-2022

Today’s Newfoundland… It may not be my first stop in St. John, but the Quidi Vidi Brewery will be in the top 5. July 31, 2021 “There is no royal, flower-strewn path to success. And if there is, I have not found it. For if I have accomplished anything in life, it is because I have been willing to work hard.” –CJ Walker What Worked, What Didn’t, What’s Next? One of the common denominators of successful people is their ability to persevere when things don’t go as planned.  Effective people don’t allow themselves to get bogged down in feelings that

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