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05-MAY 29-2020

Which is it? The long or the short...Good morning.
Things were moving along swimmingly before the announcement came of a press conference tomorrow by President Trump on China.  What’s happening on Hong Kong is tragic.
I have a brother that’s lived there for over 10 years and he’s had to move to Japan.  Somehow a tear gas gun in the face will do that to you.  The market has continued to shrug off the tremendous risks that are still present.  This is just another reminder that we are still “lost in the woods” economically.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Don’t Ignore This Ominous Market Signal

Every year around this time, my wife Caryl and l take a vacation… (visit New York City, Halifax. or Europe).

Last night, Caryl told me that plane tickets from YYC (our closest airport) to “where-ever” were ridiculously cheap and asked it she should book a trip for June/July, when pandemic lockdowns are presumably looser.  My response: “Let’s wait and see how the pandemic plays out.”
Multiply my decision to defer a major purchase by similar decisions made by several million other consumers and you get an idea of the challenges impeding any economic “recovery.”
Consumer confidence has been traumatized by the coronavirus.  Even as economies reopen, many people will remain reluctant to start mingling in bars, restaurants, sports stadiums, theme parks, and shopping malls.  They will be especially reluctant to step into the crowded fuselage of an airplane.
To my mind, this dynamic explains an anomaly during the current stock market recovery.  Typically during rebounds from bear markets, cyclicals lead the market higher.  That’s not the case with this recovery in equities, which isn’t demonstrating cyclical leadership.  It seems that even the bulls have their doubts about the economy’s future and they’re pricing in a long, slow recovery…

May 29, 2019

Take the “i” out of triumph and what do you get?  ..hi Trump! …Okay, it needs work!

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Come From Aways, Do You?

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