05-MAY 13-2021

Customer ServiceGood morning.
The latest consumer price index (CPI) numbers were expected to be high.  But with prices now rising at an annualized rate of over 4.2 percent per year, the highest since 1981 (when you could park money in Treasuries at 20 percent) it’s clear that inflation is running hotter than even the Federal Reserve is looking for.
Higher inflation means prices are rising higher, which sounds like it should be good for stocks.  For companies that can pass on higher costs to customers, things should be fine.  But many companies can’t.  And rising prices of commodities this year are leading to far higher prices than what’s going into final consumer prices.  There isn’t enough data yet to determine if this is final or not, hence the stock market’s reaction to this unexpectedly high level.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

The Psychology of Quantitative Easing is Far More Important Than Its Dollar Amount –Mike Shedlock,MishTalk
It’s the psychology, stupid.  As long as investors believe the Fed won’t let the markets go down, they will continue to speculate in anything and everything (even dogecoin)… [Read Here]

May 13, 2020

World of LiesGood morning.
If you had a chance to catch the Senate hearings today with Dr. Fauci, it was interesting.  The news headlines and the discussions have created a lot of division as to the direction states should go with regulations.
You have an impossible situation where more people are feeling the trajectory of the virus is bettering and at the same time there’s a very immoveable, significant minority that feels its getting worse.
As you read headlines, this continues to be reflected.  One thing we can say following Tuesday is that the market is uncertain, and in this climate, that likely means more near-term selling.

Disconnect Between Markets and Reality Hits “Idiotic” Levels

DisconnectOne month ago, with the S&P500 staging an impressive V-shaped rebound from the March 23 lows after the Fed un-leashed a nuclear bomb of monetary stimulus, we showed that forward stock multiples had surged right back 19.4x, which was just above the level the S&P500 held on Feb 19 when it was trading at an all-time high above 3,330.  In other words, at in the first week of April, stocks were valued the same as they were at the February all time highs, which we showed in the following chart. [Read Here]

Gold currently at $1,713.82, silver at $15.56

… as …

U.S. Added More Debt in Last 27 Days Than Nation’s First 192 Years

OopsThe U.S. economy is likely to have an L-shaped recession, according to new working paper circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research… AND … James Grant, of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer discusses the Fed’s response to the coronavirus, the stock market and the economy: “The Fed is changing how things look not changing how things are.”

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