04-APRIL 21-2022

Career ClimbGood morning.
In a world where trust in traditional forms of media has deteriorated a rapid rate, there’s naturally an investment implication.  It’s this: Simply do the opposite of what you’re being told to do.
Case in point?  Netflix (NFLX).  Shares lost more than one-third of their value following the company’s first-ever drop in subscribers.  Instead of being on track to add another 2 million users this year, the company will likely struggle to break even.  Yet it’s only now that Wall Street analysts are downgrading the stock, and it’s easy to find bullish references from mainstream figures like Jim Cramer touting the stock at higher prices earlier this year.
For investors, a better strategy to improve returns might be to avoid or even bet against companies being touted in the mainstream, and to buy after a big drop and analyst downgrade.  That’s especially true as analysts tend to upgrade stocks only after they’ve been going up, a counterintuitive sign that it may be prudent to take some profits.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Should Be Stopped
Most experts do not necessarily agree on whether central bank digital currencies are good or bad.  I believe that the Fed should not launch a CBDC.  Ever.  And I think that Congress should amend the Federal Reserve Act to say… [Read Here]

3 Reasons Why Food Shortages Will Get Even Worse
A confluence of circumstances has come together to create a perfect storm for global food production, and now that “perfect storm” is about to get even worse.   For months I warned that this crisis was coming, and now I update my warnings with this… [Read Here]

April 21, 2021

GuessGood morning.
Investors often follow the price of a stock to determine if there’s an uptrend or downtrend, and if there may be a potential change that can result in profits.  But other trends are key to watch as well.  One such trend is stock flows.
The first quarter of the year saw record inflows into the stock market.  It also saw the creation and popping of mini-bubbles in retail stocks, special purpose acquisition companies, and the tech sector before a selloff there on rising interest rates.
Now, investors are starting to flow out of stocks, which could lead to more of these mini-bubbles bursting, or even a market pullback in the months ahead.  That comes after the S&P 500 closed last week at one of its rare overbought readings.  The drop in the market so far this week may be the start of the next mini-correction of 10 percent or so over the next few weeks.

Gold currently at $1,780.51, silver at $25.93

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Stimulus Payments to Americans Are Stimulating China’s Economy –Larry Kudlow,Fox Business News
The $3 trillion stimulus led to consumer spending, massive Chinese growth and exports and a larger U.S. trade deficit with China than ever before… [Read Here]

April 21, 2020

As Employee-of-the-MonthGood morning.
It was a weird feeling on Monday morning seeing the expiring futures contract for oil trade at $11, but it got even weirder as it began trading in negative territory just before close.  While this is certainly bearish for oil, the active oil futures contract finished at around $21.50.
The issue is that nobody wanted to finish the day long the expiring contract as there is virtually nowhere to store the oil once delivered.  This is such a crazy time in the markets as these occasions clearly point out how illiquid things really are.

YES!!!  Coronavirus finally got kicked from the headlines…

Yesterday, the crisis in the oil market took center stage.  With demand falling, capacity filling up, and a bit of wonkiness in the futures market, prices actually went negative on Monday.  Oil prices won’t stay negative, of course.  And I’m sure you are wondering where they’re headed next.  But the more important thing is what this decline means for the companies that produce it.
Unfortunately, oil and gas producers are tied to what they sell.  It’s that simple…
If oil prices fall below a certain level, oil producers run at a loss.  And eventually, some of them will go out of business.  There’s no way to get around it.  And no matter where oil settles after this week’s crash, that’s the reality many oil producers are facing today.  The cost to produce oil is higher than what they can sell it for.  The entire sector is in a massive downtrend as a result.  And history says those lows could lead to double-digit losses from here.

April 21, 2019

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