04-APRIL 20-2022

IRS April '22Good morning.
Tracking economic growth (or decline) in real-time is tricky.  By the time statistics are collected, they’re weeks out of date.  And after being adjusted, they’re often months out of date.  That’s why economists and traders look for leading indicators that can give an advance warning of what’s going on in real time.
One potential indicator for consumer health might be found in the world of streaming subscriptions.  Data out of the UK indicates a massive wave of cancellations there, as the country faces its highest inflation rates in decades.  Looking at individual streaming companies and their customer retention rate may give as good an indication – if not better – than looking at the big-picture economic statistics that take months to compile.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Margin Debt Collapse Means We Are Heading For Implosion
Margin debt, the only type of stock leverage that is reported regularly, dropped by another $36 billion, or by 4.3%, in March from February, and by 12.4% over the past three months.  Many experts say that this huge collapse could lead to… [Read Here]

Goldman Sachs Issues Grimm Two Year Forecast
With recession calls on Wall Street picking up as the Federal Reserve embarks on what could be up to eight interest rate hikes this year, Goldman Sachs is not keeping quiet.  Recently the financial group issued this stunning prediction… [Read Here]

April 20, 2021

Dreaming SleepGood morning.
Ford Motors (F) was founded in 1903.  In its 118 years as a company, it’s been built up as a giant in the automotive sector with a $48 billion valuation.  But thanks to a rise in electric vehicles, the company saw Tesla Motors (TSLA) surge past it in value last year.
Now, another player is moving past.  But it’s not an automotive firm.  Started in 2013 as a joke based off a meme, the new $50 billion player on the market is Dogecoin.  The digital currency does have some use as a currency, and there’s no saying when its explosive move may go higher.  But just as Ford started seeing its shares move higher on news that it was developing electric vehicles, it may be time for the company to start embracing cryptos as well.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

A Florida McDonald’s Is Paying People $50 Just to Show Up For an Interview (and Still Struggling to Find Applicants)
–Kate Taylor,Business Insider
The biggest challenge is the federal and state governments continue with this unemployment, because that is truly creating the incentive to not work right now… [Read Here]

April 20, 2020

Toy with YouGood morning.
All the talk of reopening the economy sounds great in theory, but how does it work in practice?  I know people are buying on the headline and the actual details can be sold later, but this seems like the biggest disconnect I’ve seen since 2008’s “soft landing.”
The reality is that “reopening” means different things to different people.  Unfortunately for those making policy decisions, it doesn’t mean that restrictions stay away, and life goes back to normal.  At some point, the market may awaken to that.

April 20, 2019

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