04-APRIL 07-2022

We Too ThoughtGood morning.
China adopted a “zero-tolerance” policy for Covid-19 in its early days.  And the country has cracked down heavily on areas where cases have been reported as a result.  The latest new cases show a concentration of more than 13,000 in the country in Shanghai alone.  The result?  A strict lockdown.
With a population of about 25 million, the disruption within China guarantees that many factories will be producing less throughout the country, and further lockdowns may again shut down production.  Given how that can take time to reverberate through the global supply chain, it’s clear that these latest lockdowns are hitting at a bad time – and could extend supply chain issues for at least another six months.
Combined with the latest comments coming out of the Fed, it’s clear why traders should have remained cautious over the past few weeks, and why that caution should continue to pay off in the months ahead.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Is History The Greatest Economic Injustice In Recent History?
The Fed’s own data on the distribution of wealth in the US is a quarterly report card on the Fed’s official policy goal of the “Wealth Effect.”  It has now released the data for Q4.  The Fed uses monetary policies, such as QE and interest rate repression, to create… [Read Here]

Analyst: A Terrifying Form Of Socialism Is Coming To America
One of the more foolish ideas in a time full of them is that there is an easy way to “cure” inflation.  In fact, what these clever solutions do is create or increase shortages.  To put it simply, some of these ideas discourage producers from… [Read Here]

April 07, 2021

Eating Our Again-...-GREATGood morning.
The stock market is forward-looking.  So when looking at the price tag of proposed legislation like a multi-trillion spending bill, there’s usually some concern.  Ditto with proposals to raise tax rates.  Yet Treasury bonds have sold off a bit, and fears of higher persistent inflation are starting to wane.
The news also comes as it appears that any big government spending bills will likely face a lot of changes before being passed into law.  With Congress narrowly divided, the fewer big changes on the horizon make it easier for businesses to plan.  The rise of gridlock, or at least muted new spending, indicates that markets may still be capable of moving far higher in the months to come.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Gold to Emerge Stronger Than Ever in the Post-Pandemic Environment: CPM Group
CPM Group names debt, government deficits and loose monetary policies as the pro-gold forces to watch.  And there’s one additional factor in CPM Group’s analysis retirement savers should watch out for… [Read Here]

April 07, 2020

When Box is EmptyGood morning.
Over the past couple weeks, there have been some rather large bullish bets being made in the options market using SLV and TIP.  These are ETFs that track silver and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).
It’s interesting that inflation fear trades are building at a time when so much malaise is spread over the world.  However, when you consider the amount of stimulative action by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government, it may not be a mystery at all.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Worst First Quarter Ever: A Sector Review by Robert Rapier
It’s hard to believe how rapidly the markets have changed since the end of 2019.  Following an S&P 500 return of 8.5% in Q4 2019, the new year began with a lot of optimism.
Add one global pandemic to the mix, and everything has changed.  As it became clear that the COVID-19 pandemic would be extraordinarily disruptive to the markets, they melted down at the fastest rate in history.  Many companies in the S&P 500 are now trading at their lowest valuations in years.

April 07, 2019

Hope to Cope: Stop Negative Thinkin’ in Its Tracks

April 07, 2018

Elon Musk Jokes About Tesla’s Debt – But the Joke Could Be on the U.S.  The U.S. debt is almost a joke at this point, but it’s not a funny one.  Especially since Elon Musk’s April Fool’s joke on Twitter could have some truth behind, revealing a hidden danger lurking in the U.S. debt.

London Fix PM price at week’s end (change over last week):
Gold… $1,337.30 (+1.0%)
Silver… $16.31 (+.2%)

April 07, 2017

In today’ headlines:

Markets have been jumpy in recent days, spooked by all the political craziness at home and abroad.  If you’re looking for safety, I explain why two titans of technology — that’s right, technology — are shelter from the gathering storm.
Let’s first examine the international scene, which would resemble a Saturday Night Live sketch if the stakes weren’t so high.
President Trump’s meeting this week with President Xi Jinping of China hasn’t exactly calmed investor nerves.  Observing the brash American president’s attempts at diplomacy is like watching a man who’s trying to navigate an icy sidewalk.  Potential disaster looms at every faltering step.
Also unnerving traders is heightened saber rattling from North Korea’s President Kim Jong-un, a cartoon-like character with a bad haircut who nonetheless seems intent on getting his hands on a nuclear weapon.

Ouch!

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