02-FEBRUARY 16-2022

Business_2021aGood morning.
Friday marks option expiration, or “opex” week, as most standardized contracts expire on the third Friday of the month.  We’ve seen in the past that options trades have now become the tail wagging the stock market’s dog, as retail investors have ditched stocks for options to move their portfolios.
Looking at the current situation, there’s a lot of gamma in the market, largely from investors hedging over last week’s Fed meeting and the Russia-Ukraine fears that continue to wane.  As this gamma drops in the options market, we could get a reflexive rally in stocks, continuing the jump higher that started in the market on Tuesday.
Traders should look at this as a short-term opportunity, with the view that traders may want to continue hedging, so options gamma could start rebuilding next week as traders look to March options contracts.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Producer prices Rises Again In January, What’s Gong On?
The Producer Price Index jumped another percent in January according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  Prices for final demand services advanced 0.7 percent in January, the same as in December. [Read Here]

Experts Report A “Perfect Storm” For Bankruptcies And Foreclosures
Economists and professionals in the restructuring sector of business and real estate have been anticipating a distressed economy for the past 18 months.  Thus far they have been wrong. The public is just plain confused. [Read Here]

February 16, 2021

Okay DadGood morning.
During the last financial crisis, central banks started slashing interest rates to zero percent and added in bond-buying programs to support the economy.  Those tools were brought back within the space of just a few weeks last year during the pandemic.  Last time, there were fears of inflation that didn’t materialize.
Many are saying the same thing today.  And it’s true: The consumer price index, or CPI, is still showing inflation at just 2 percent per year.  However, when the stock market is up over 15 percent during a pandemic, it’s clear some of the inflation has made its way to asset prices.  That’s even clearer when looking at home prices, which have now finally beat their 2005 peak, thanks to a 14.9 percent rise in the past year.  If that’s where the money printing is going, it makes sense why many are buying homes and stocks right now, and why that trend is likely to continue.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Culmination of Fed Interventions Inflates Historic “Everything Bubble” 
Market addiction to the Fed’s QE has created a $7.8 trillion problem, and now a key indicator for overvalued asset prices points to an imminent reckoning.  Here’s how we know there’s trouble… [Read Here]

February 16, 2020

A 'secret shame'Some don’t see a problem with 4 out of 500 companies being responsible for 67% of market returns.  But what this tell us is that money flowing into company-weighted index funds are starting to have a pull-away effect on these large tech names, and that the best profits for individual traders will be in smaller, more off-the-radar names.
Options trading volumes have hit an all-time high.  No sur-prise: Most of the volume is happening in tech names and fast-moving companies like Tesla Motors.

Today is DarrenDaily Recap Sunday.  A collection of the weeks videos from Darren Hardy.  Enjoy!

…and two more fabulous pictures of Newfoundland … A place I soon will live forever!

“I’d never even heard of Gander until I auditioned,” said Q. Smith,
who plays the stranded mother of a missing New York City firefighter.
“I want to see a moose!”

February 16, 2019

I’ve been head deep in a book called the ‘Compound Effect’ by founder of SUCCESS magazine, Darren Hardy.  It has some amazing insights about proven ways to break bad habits.

It’s mid February now!  Most of us are trying to make a positive change to our lives and since we’re more than a month into the New Year, this is when our bad habits rear their ugly heads.  Break your bad habits. you think?

That sugar laden high-calorie ice cappuccino or frappuccino every morning or the bowl of candy or chips in the break room…

The bottle of wine with dinner… the sweet treat after dinner… that late night crunchy snack that curbs your cravings… ‘n’ the list goes on & on.

If you’ve spent 20, 30, or even 40 years repeating unhealthy behaviors you’re trying to change then you have to be patient.  It’s going to take time, but don’t forget these 3 words…  Don’t give up!  I’ve put together this cool video for yah!

“For it is the thoughts that you give precedence to that shape you character, create your circumstances, and determine your ultimate destiny.”

Here are 5 techniques that will get you there faster.

[Tomorrow]

To Our Good Habits…  🙂

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Come From Aways, Do You?

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05-MAY 15-2022

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05-MAY 14-2022

Today! May 14, 2021 Good morning. One year ago, oil prices went negative as traders feared that the pandemic would lead to prolonged drops in oil use and got caught in trades they couldn’t get out of.  Today, oil and gasoline prices have held up well in inventory reports.  However, supply issues remain in the South and up and down the East Coast, even as Colonial pipeline paid a $5 million ransom to the hackers who shut down their system.  A number of states have declared emergencies as supplies have run low. It just goes to show that oil, one

05-MAY 13-2022

Good morning. Meme stocks are back!  Well, sort of. A spike in companies like AMC Entertainment (AMC) and GameStop (GME) occurred yesterday.  GameStop was even halted multiple times on the way up (but not on the way down).  Oddly, this may be an early sign that markets are looking for a short-term bottom, given the sharp reversals higher. On CNBC, analyst Jim Cramer came out against the traders of meme stocks using sites like Reddit’s Wall Street Bets, to find the meme stock opportunities in the first place.  Tough words for someone whose television show features sound effects.  But for

05-MAY 12-2022

Good morning. The good news?  Inflation has slightly slowed on a year-over-year basis, for the first time in seven months.  The bad news?  It’s still high at 8.3 percent.  And it came in higher than expectations. Looking at the data shows some reasons for the unexpected strength.  Most components of CPI still rose more than 6 percent in April.  But soaring food prices – which we’ve warned about fairly often — were a big contributor.  Another big move higher was record airfare prices, as high fuel costs and a reopened economy drove prices up. The data doesn’t give too much

05-MAY 11-2022

Good morning. Typically, growth stocks lead the market.  That’s because these companies have the ability to scale up rapidly, and one of the best signs of a stock heading higher over the long haul is increased earnings. Yet every few years, value stocks have their time to shine.  A year ago, Warren Buffett’s performance as being derided.  Yet he’s buying stocks now.  In contrast, Ark Innovation, the hypergrowth fund managed by Cathie Wood, is now not just down relative to Buffett — but it’s underperforming the S&P 500 since its inception. Can these trends reverse in time?  Yes.  Will they

05-MAY 10-2022

Good morning. Any econ 101 student can tell you that there’s a lag effect between something like, say, the creation of trillions of dollars in spending, and inflation rates reflecting that.  We’re seeing that trend play out today, with the highest inflation levels in decades. The good news?  Some of that new money first went to financial markets, rather than in goods and services.  That helped keep many things affordable, especially during the initial lockdown phase of the pandemic.  But today, we’re seeing the impacts of those past lockdowns (and current ones).  And we’re seeing that handing out money directly

05-MAY 09-2022

Good morning. People don’t mind inflation when it hits things like assets.  When stocks and home prices are rising, consumers feel wealthier.  This “wealth effect” tends to be beneficial to spending, which then become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The 2009-2020 market rally started with this effect.  The bank bailouts propped up the banks, but didn’t cause inflation on Main Street.  Today, thanks to the stimulus measures during the pandemic, Main Street went on a spending binge.  That’s caused a reverse wealth effect as the prices of goods like food and utilities are rising at a rapid rate — but now asset

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