01-JANUARY 29-2021

Who's the DonkeyGood morning.
The fee-heavy, underperforming Wall Street “pros” have one thing to say to retail traders: Stay out of my territory.  Instead of closing out their short positions and looking for the next trade, the industry has come out heavily against the little guy picking up shares of GameStop.
This “Black Thursday” showed that major brokerage firms and hedge funds are more than willing to collude to keep traders from buying companies they like at a price they’re willing to pay, all so their wealthier friends can get a bailout.  That’s on top of the fact that large funds can already see the order flow from these retailer brokerages so they can front-run the trades of retail investors.  Clearly, the fix is in.  Hopefully instead of slinking away, retail traders will build a better investment platform that won’t lock them out of big trades.  Maybe retail investors need to buy Robinhood when it goes public, to prevent this kind of “rules for thee but not for me” mentality from ever having power again.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

China Surpasses U.S. as Largest Recipient of Foreign Direct Investment During COVID Pandemic. –Tucker Higgins
“Foreign direct investment” comes from people and businesses in other countries, like factory construction or opening a new office.  How did China replace the U.S. as #1? [Read Here]

January 29, 2020

What I say is going to make you money!

“The most effective positioning in sales or network marketing recruiting
… is when your prospect has to sell themselves to you.”

B10x bolderPeople love to be:

      • Chosen
      • Qualified
      • Winners
      • Selected

What you run away from will chase you!

    • Everything you chase will runaway…
    • Everything you run away from will chase you…

People do not appreciate ‘that which’ is given to them easily and without effort.

Whoever cares the least IS in control.  😉

January 29, 2019

Payday of sorts… Tracking Productivity!

  • ”Would you drive without a speedometer?”
  • ”Would you use a bank that could not tell you how much money was in your bank account?”
  • Don’t try to grow a business without tracking productivity.”

Hmmm, honestly it depends:  If I was driving on the Auto-Bahn in Europe, where there was no posted speed limit, I likely wouldn’t think it significant whether my speedometer was working or not.  In the city driving in a residential neighborhood with children playing, schools zones in effect, radar and police … I’d be more observant, you would hope.  Rushing someone to the hospital … again a different matter.

Tracking productivity is important — it’s the markings like the 60 … 30 … and 10 yard line.  Ultimately the driving one’s self across the goal-line or kicking the ball through the goalposts … will determine if the team moved forward successfully!                 

The ‘life partner’ to productivity is ‘accountability’.  Touchdowns, field goals and yards — forward & back — are measured.  Bean counters, officials, umpires and score keepers … each tracking execution, movement and data; but ONLY YOU AND YOUR FAMILY can determine if the effort — the exertion and any sacrifices made along the journey — were really and truly worthwhile.  No lives at risk today!  No ambulance required.  😉

Did The Ends — Justifying The Means?

… AND …

Did The Means — Justifying The Ends?

January 29, 2018

Lithium Supplies [heads up]

Learn, Invest and Prosper in Oil & Gas

  • Keith Schaefer

Industrial end-users of lithium are nervous about securing lithium supply — at any price — and they are buying into and buying out junior lithium companies.  Demand is ramping and new production is coming on very slowly.

Most recently, Toyota —  the first or second largest automaker in the world, depending on the day — bought a 15% stake in junior lithium producer Orocobre (ORL-TSX; ORA-ASE) for US$224 million.  Toyota said right in the press release this was to secure lithium supply.  Toyota is the first — and largest — non-Chinese company to move quickly in the face of rising lithium demand and prices.

Last November, Lithium X (LIX-TSXv) was bought out by a Chinese investment company called NextView New Energy Lion Hong Kong Ltd.  Lithium X was in the public markets for less than two years, only raised $50 million and was purchased for $261 million.

There’s more:

  • Belgium-based Umicore, committed 460 million Euros in cathode capacity expansion.
  • Germany’s BASF signed an MOU with Norway’s Norilsk for 400 million Euros to expand battery cathode production in Europe
  • Great Walls Motors — China’s largest producer of SUVs — invested $28 million in Aussie-listed Pilbara Minerals and signed an off-take agreement

Looking at Lithium X, and the fact that Pilbara is not even in production (but will be later this year) is a clear example of Chinese interests locking in supply through the next decade.

China does most of the world’s lithium processing, so it’s no surprise to see a Chinese company be the first to do this — nobody knows how tight the lithium market will be in a few years better than them.

But this trend also speaks to — end users do not trust the major producers to ramp up production fast enough to meet demand — which is The Big Surprise.  There were many “smart” investors sneering when the lithium boom took off in early 2016 — saying that the major producers could increase production quickly and easily.

But that hasn’t been the case.

Lithium may be abundant, but getting permits  and technical expertise to bring it to market has proven to be exceedingly rare.  Albemarle (ALB-NYSE) has had a very difficult time bringing their new La Negra asset into production.  Orocobre, a junior producer, is just getting through two painful years of delays and under-performance at their Olaroz brine deposit.

Chilean lithium producer SQM (SQM-NYSE) rocked the lithium world recently when they got approval to increase production by 216,000 tons way up in the Atacama Desert.  But that production is YEARS away.  They still have to find the labour, get the permits, build the mines, wait two years for evaporation… this will have no impact for five years at least.

And that’s why investors are rewarding lithium stocks as they get to production.  Orocobre’s stock has doubled in just 4 months to $6.70 as they fixed their problems.  Albemarle was a triple in the last 2 years, hitting over $140/share.

Even the near term producers are seeing big stock runs, like Nemaska Lithium (NMX-TSX), saw their stock double in the last six months of 2017, as they develop a lithium production facility in Quebec, Canada.

Yes, the lithium supply chain — from top to bottom — is nervous about securing supply, both inside and outside China as the tightness in the lithium market continues.  In 2017, over US $1.3 Billion was committed to or invested in lithium development.

A new lithium mine costs roughly US$400 million (higher for brine, lower for hard rock).  Demand forecasts show at least one new mine is needed per year out to 2025 (around 35,000 tpy at a 14% CAGR), so this pace of funding needs to be maintained and could total as much as $3 to $4 billion USD just in mine development.

And all this investment is upstream, to source raw material supply — I’m not even counting the millions that needs to be spent on refining and processing.

HOW LITHIUM INVESTORS MAKE MONEY NOW:

The physical lithium market is really tight right now, with prices in China over $20,000 per ton, and $14,000-$16,000 outside of China.  SQM’s new production announcement will help lithium supplies in a few years — but the lithium market is, and will remain, hugely profitable in the short to medium term.

That’s why I think lithium stocks stay much stronger for much longer; the industry is now putting its money on the line to guarantee supply for the long term.

The industry majors actually have a poor track record in bringing new production online — hence the Big Home Run in new producers and near term producers like Nemaska (a double in six months) and Lithium Americas (LAC-TSX) which went from $4-$14 — a triple — in six months.

But I’m not interested in owning stocks that have ALREADY had The Big Home Run.   I want to find The Next One.

And I have found it.  I had to work hard to find this one, because this top management team has been very quietly building an incredible asset base — right in the USA.  And now I am so convinced  that this company can be in commercial production faster than anyone else I see out there.

There are so many angles here; they have so many big advantages over other companies:

  1. Permits in place
  2. They can produce lithium from brine in 48 hours vs. 18 months in evaporation ponds
  3. This will make them one of the lowest cost lithium producers in the world  (probably THE lowest but I don’t want to get too excited)
  4. They will be a home grown US producer — that’s right, this company’s big brine deposit is smack dab in the middle of the USA!!!  And lithium is on President Trump’s list of critical metals.

Being able to produce commercial lithium from brine in 48 hours is an absolute game changer.  The best part is… everything is off-the-shelf technology.  There’s no technological Holy Grail; the industry didn’t try to do this before because it didn’t need to.  But now it does.  Getting SQM’s new 350,000 tons of lithium by 2030 doesn’t help anybody now.

I think The Next One in lithium is a Game Changer.  The speed at which this company will be able to produce lithium will turn everyone’s head.  And they have the technical team and the finance team in place to do it — it’s about to start!

Plans for the pilot plant are already underway.  Their next few catalysts — all within weeks to months from now — will move the company forward so quickly, it will quickly move up the value chain.  And the Big Institutional Money (BIM) will flock to it.

I have never seen a team fast track production like this.  This is the single most impressive technical team I’ve come across in the junior lithium space.  And I’m going to introduce them to you in my next story.

Get yourself ready, as I give you the name, symbol and reasons why my lithium stock will be The Next One to hit The Big Home Run for investors.

In the next wave of Lithium Stock Home Runs — as Big Institutional Money bids up the next round of stocks — having permits, and fast-tracking production, will be key.  And this company has it all.

Keith Schaefer

IMG_0712
Come From Aways, Do You?

More Posts

01-JANUARY 26-2022

Good morning. In spite of 7 percent inflation rates right now, consumers are continuing to spend.  While their overall confidence has dropped, the actual spending itself shows that the economy, largely dominated by such spending, is likely to continue moving higher this year. If inflation rates start to decline in the coming months, the market could be setting up for a solid return as the current fears abate.  Given the latest data showing that consumers continue to be interested in buying homes, automobiles, and appliances this year, even a small change higher in interest rates will unlikely derail the economy’s

01-JANUARY 25-2022

Good morning. On Friday, the stock market broke its 200-day moving average lower for the first time since July 2020.  Stocks are looking at oversold levels going into the weekend, with many names down much further than the overall stock market index.  But yesterday’s wild trading saw a massive drop reverse into a gain at the close. This reversal could be a sign of capitulation by sellers, and that the worst of the current decline is over.  With leveraged traders already wiped out, and plenty of cash from retail and institutional investors on the sidelines, the market could see a

01-JANUARY 24-2022

Good morning. Markets had $3.3 trillion reasons to be volatile last week.  That was based on the notational value of options expiring on Friday.  That included $1.3 trillion for individual stock positions alone, the second-highest on record.  Traders repositioning those trades ahead of expiration last week may have contributed to the big selloff, which finally started reversing on Friday as Treasury yields started coming back down. Given the growth of options trading, this phenomenon of added volatility into options expiration weeks may continue for the foreseeable future.  While February’s contracts are far lower in value, the next big hump will

01-JANUARY 23-2022

Today! January 23, 2021 “Creativity is an action, not a feeling.  Your work is too important to be left to how you feel today.”  –Seth Godin Power Thought That Raises Awareness Whenever we’re talking about personal transformation — whether it’s physical (lose weight), financial (get out of debt), mental (overcome anxiety), spiritual, relational (repair a broken relationship), etc. — what we’re really talking about is change.  And for most, that can be scary.  In fact, many people don’t even entertain the idea of change until the pain of not changing becomes unbearable. In other words, you have to be ready and willing

01-JANUARY 22-2022

Today! January 22, 2021 Good morning. The trade war.  The pandemic.  The election.  All the big catalysts that can move markets up or down are now off the table.  So what’s next?  Until a new catalyst emerges, expect markets to drift. With markets in a long-term uptrend, the drift will likely be higher.  Individual names can still have some big news on corporate announcements and earnings reports.  And look for potential catalysts that could provide the market’s next big move, whether higher (stimulus) or lower (war, pandemic, today’s high valuations). Now here’s the rest of the news: A “Cash Panic”

01-JANUARY 21-2022

Good morning. Fears of rising inflation are likely to peak this year.  That’s good news.  And with news that major spending bills would be broken up, the likelihood of further fiscal stimulus to drive inflation higher is also likely to help there. In other areas, however, the economy is showing signs of a slowdown.  Jobless claims have risen to a three-month high.  Home sales have slowed after a massive boom in the past 18 months.  And now, expectations are that the trans-Pacific cargo trade are now rising to a three month wait time on average.  With a longer wait time

01-JANUARY 20-2022

Good morning. While the stock market has largely been focused on rising interest rates in the past few weeks, the start to earnings season this week has been subdued.  Many of the big banks have started to report numbers.  And banks should be faring well even with higher rates of inflation going on right now. However, bank earnings have overall been lacklustre, as many banks have reported trading losses that have offset the gains made from a big year for mergers and IPOs. If bank earnings aren’t enough to get the markets excited and moving higher, chances are we’re in

Like this article?

Share on facebook
Share on Facebook
Share on twitter
Share on Twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on Linkdin
Share on pinterest
Share on Pinterest

Leave a comment

Send Us A Message