01-JANUARY 28-2022

Gene TherapyGood morning.
Economic growth surged to a 6.9 percent annualized return for the fourth quarter of 2021.  But for anyone looking at inflation rates hitting a 7.0 percent annualized return in December, the back-of-the-envelope math suggests that most, if not all, of the economic growth in the past year has been eaten away by inflation.
A push to slow the economy to crush inflation can work out well in time, but it can also mean stagflation, where prices are still rising even in a recession.  That’s a potential outcome for the economy ahead, but chances are we’ll see policymakers work to step on the gas again if it looks like things are about to get far worse.  That points to a market likely to partially recover from its selloff from the start of the year, but one where high volatility will continue to be the norm.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Top Analyst Predicts A 40% Collapse, And It Looks Like He’s Right
By every measure, this bubble is bigger and more encompassing than the previous two.  A 40% decline from the tops is the bare minimum of what I expect.  That’s how overvalued stocks are.  If so, this plunge is barely a down pay on what’s coming… [Read Here]

January 28, 2021

The RaceGood morning.
For years, retail investors have been stuck with funds both either underperform the market, and have such high fees that it’s been impossible to consistently beat the market.  Hedge funds have infamously taken “two and twenty” fees — 2% of assets and 20% of profits (if any).
Now, we’re seeing retail investors use internet boards like Wall Street Bets on Reddit to crowdsource trading opportunities.  On the other side of the trade? Hedge fund “experts” who think they know better, and who got overly pessimistic on shares of a company.  The drama will likely end with shares of companies like GameStop crashing back down, but not before a few big-name traders are completely humiliated.  Score one for the little guy.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

President Biden’s Unity Has a High Price Tag –JD Tuccille
The $1.9 trillion pandemic “relief” package might unite Americans the way a sinking ship brings passengers and crew together as they await their fate.

Gold currently at $1,853.59, silver at $25.57

January 28, 2020

Mother's Day_8Good morning.
Median home sales increased 7.8% from a year ago in January, sporting the biggest rise since January 2016.  The median home price in the United States also hit $274,500.
In a year that saw just about everything rise substantially, this news should come as no surprise.  But with many touting declining inventory levels — now down for seven months in a row — this is one area where price improvements are likely to continue.

“Make today so awesome — yesterday is jealous.”

Big Al’s Awesome Tip #7

Disable our prospects’ fear and anger with these two powerful phrases.

#1. “Here is the short story.”

This phrase relaxes our prospects.  They know we will get to the point immediately, and our presenta-tion will be short.  Then, we can say something awesome.  An example?

“Here is the short story.  Getting a raise at our job is hard now, but this part-time business could give us all the extra money we need.”

#2. “Before l show you how this business works, let me tell you what happened to me.”

Our prospects feel that our presentation is delayed until later.  A sigh of relief.  And now we can tell a short story of our experience with our products, services, or opportunity.  Our prospects will now hear the benefits of what we offer with less prejudice.

If you’re calling out to everyone … you’re calling out to no one!

Fewer Choices.

Making choices is hard, cognitive work.  It tires out our brains.

If we see too many choices, we give up.  That means procrastination and the dreaded, “I need to think it over.”

The best strategy?

Two choices.

Choice #1.  Keep your life as it is.

Choice #2.  Join with me and change your life.

That’s it.

Avoid too many choices.  An example of too many choices?

“You can join at the beginning level at a 20% discount, but will need to increase your order in the future to qualify at the executive bonuses, or join at level 2 now by choosing one of these three packs, each with focused products in one area of our business.  By enrolling in autoship it opens the addi-tional bonus on your initial enrollees …”

Well, we get the idea.  Humans don’t like to think too hard.  We want to save our thinking energy for something important, such as what to watch on TV this evening.

Remember: If you are calling out to everyone … you are calling out to no one! 

January 28, 2019

Monday morning quote!

“Hard Work … Pays Off … For Your Boss.”

That cracks me up ’cause it reminds us of what I heard a long time ago.

Working your job: You will only be paid money in relationship to what money you bring back into the business.  The cost of ‘replace-ment’.  Once it costs the company too much to keep you, sick leave benefits and subsidized insurance, paid holidays and vacation time! … [your full time benefits package] … the company will replace you with 1 -3 part time staff that get fewer, maybe even none of these benefits … even at the cost of loyalty, accountability, and experience.  Maybe there is a better way.  Not Perfect — Just Better.  😉

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Come From Aways, Do You?

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05-MAY 15-2022

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05-MAY 14-2022

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05-MAY 13-2022

Good morning. Meme stocks are back!  Well, sort of. A spike in companies like AMC Entertainment (AMC) and GameStop (GME) occurred yesterday.  GameStop was even halted multiple times on the way up (but not on the way down).  Oddly, this may be an early sign that markets are looking for a short-term bottom, given the sharp reversals higher. On CNBC, analyst Jim Cramer came out against the traders of meme stocks using sites like Reddit’s Wall Street Bets, to find the meme stock opportunities in the first place.  Tough words for someone whose television show features sound effects.  But for

05-MAY 12-2022

Good morning. The good news?  Inflation has slightly slowed on a year-over-year basis, for the first time in seven months.  The bad news?  It’s still high at 8.3 percent.  And it came in higher than expectations. Looking at the data shows some reasons for the unexpected strength.  Most components of CPI still rose more than 6 percent in April.  But soaring food prices – which we’ve warned about fairly often — were a big contributor.  Another big move higher was record airfare prices, as high fuel costs and a reopened economy drove prices up. The data doesn’t give too much

05-MAY 11-2022

Good morning. Typically, growth stocks lead the market.  That’s because these companies have the ability to scale up rapidly, and one of the best signs of a stock heading higher over the long haul is increased earnings. Yet every few years, value stocks have their time to shine.  A year ago, Warren Buffett’s performance as being derided.  Yet he’s buying stocks now.  In contrast, Ark Innovation, the hypergrowth fund managed by Cathie Wood, is now not just down relative to Buffett — but it’s underperforming the S&P 500 since its inception. Can these trends reverse in time?  Yes.  Will they

05-MAY 10-2022

Good morning. Any econ 101 student can tell you that there’s a lag effect between something like, say, the creation of trillions of dollars in spending, and inflation rates reflecting that.  We’re seeing that trend play out today, with the highest inflation levels in decades. The good news?  Some of that new money first went to financial markets, rather than in goods and services.  That helped keep many things affordable, especially during the initial lockdown phase of the pandemic.  But today, we’re seeing the impacts of those past lockdowns (and current ones).  And we’re seeing that handing out money directly

05-MAY 09-2022

Good morning. People don’t mind inflation when it hits things like assets.  When stocks and home prices are rising, consumers feel wealthier.  This “wealth effect” tends to be beneficial to spending, which then become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The 2009-2020 market rally started with this effect.  The bank bailouts propped up the banks, but didn’t cause inflation on Main Street.  Today, thanks to the stimulus measures during the pandemic, Main Street went on a spending binge.  That’s caused a reverse wealth effect as the prices of goods like food and utilities are rising at a rapid rate — but now asset

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